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At first, the former US president appeared to embrace a firm position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "serious ramifications" in August if Vladimir Putin continued blocking ceasefire talks, Trump eventually introduced major penalties on the Russian biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly hindered Putin's capability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

But, through his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, which was drafted by American and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or European input, he has seemingly reverted to his pro-Putin approach.

Benefiting Military Action

The former president's plan would in practice benefit the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite ringing declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the proposal in reality weaken that same independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate experience, Trump continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, like giving Putin a portion of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. But, Putin's military campaign is not merely about dominating a charred region of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear goal to weaken it so it ceases to acts as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that Putin's growing dictatorship withholds them.

Land Concessions

Although maintaining in status the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. Aside from favoring Russia with land that its troops have been unable to seize in more than a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defensive positions severely undermined.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a critical impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, providing Russian forces a unobstructed path to the capital should he later opt to renew the war.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would enable future fighting more feasible for Russia, Trump would force the nation to reduce the size of its military from their present large number soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, the plan imposes no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's attempts to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people government as extremists, Trump's proposal states: "Every extremist doctrine and activities must be opposed and prohibited." As if to highlight this point, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his regime by allowing votes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative has the Russian Federation promise not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". However given that Putin has violated equivalent accords in the history – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of seized land in the region to Ukrainian control – why should we trust Putin on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on western defense commitments. Although the proposal promises a "strong joint armed reaction" should Russia renew its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the particulars range from vague to alarming. The plan would not only block the nation alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Putin from replenishing his weakened forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Response

A separate side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "serious, intentional, and sustained aggression" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. However unlike a powerful national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against future invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the dedication of Western powers, such as Trump, to react militarily to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not