War-torn Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".